On September 15, 2020, “The Takeaway” featured a discussion about the presidential race with two reporters: The New York Times’ Reid Epstein and James Causey of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
During the segment, Causey made this odd remark:
It’s still hard for a lot of young people to get excited about voting for two old white men in their late 70s…This will probably be the last time – or it should be the last time – that we have a man that’s going to be 78 years old, and another one that’s like I think 76 or 77 running for president. It’s very hard to get young people excited to vote for old white men that age. It just is. And that’s going to have to change.
(Causey’s remark begins 9:33 into the clip.)
What is he basing this assessment on?
Does the Name Bernie Sanders Ring a Bell?
In the last two presidential primaries, Bernie Sanders, at 74 and 78 years old, respectively, won the youth vote decisively. Some examples:
- In the 2016 primaries, Sanders got more young votes than Clinton and Trump combined.
- Sanders’s support among young Iowans in 2016 almost gave him an upset victory, and catapulted him into contention for the nomination.
- He won Michigan in 2016, in part by winning under-30 voters by more than 60 points. In 2020, he lost Michigan, but still beat Biden among under-thirty voters by more than 50 points and voters in their 30s by 13 points.
- In New Hampshire’s 2020 primary, Sanders won an outright majority of voters under 30; among 45-and-under voters, he defeated the younger Pete Buttigieg by a 2-to-1 margin.
- In the same election, Sanders won young voters in Texas, a red state, by 50 points; he won California, a blue state, by 54 points.
- In those states, he won under-30 Latino voters by even larger amounts (Texas: 41 points; California: 66 points).
If young voters preferred young candidates, then Buttigieg would have won New Hampshire in 2020. In fact, Buttigieg did best amont older voters, not younger ones. Sanders, by contrast, struggled with older voters but did well with younger ones.
Causey’s assessment is all the more puzzling because Sander’s support among young voters was a theme in the news coverage of his presidential runs.
Young Voters for Ed Markey
It’s not just Sanders, either. In the Massachusetts primary for a U.S. Senate seat, 74-year-old incumbent Ed Markey beat 39 year old challenger Joe Kennedy III. And Markey’s victory was due in part to a double-digit lead among young voters. Again, this was the story of the race.
Fact-Free Analysis
There just isn’t much evidence to back Causey’s claim that young voters prefer young candidates. And yet, “The Takeaway” host Tanzina Vega did not push back. Instead, she replied, “To James’ point,” and pivoted to a question about older voters.
It makes me wonder if anyone participating in the discussion followed the primaries this year.